Week 2, Apply · Day 12 of 30
Day 12: Compare all three, which signal carried the read?
Three composites side by side, and the signal you almost skipped.
Day 12 in one paragraph: Across three candidates, one signal usually pulled more diagnostic weight than the others. Identifying which one for your beat (sector, stage, geography) tells you where to spend the next 30 minutes when you only have 30 minutes. You will spend about five minutes, end with a concrete artifact, and the whole curriculum stays free at this URL permanently.
Where this day sits in the 30
Week 2 combines the atomic signals into a composite score and runs it against real candidate orgs. Day 12 of 30 sits 40% of the way through, in week 2, apply, one of four one-week phases. This day also carries a bonus exercise for anyone with extra time. Everything in this challenge is built from public GitHub signals, the same data that powers the weekly deal-flow feed, and the day's lesson is worth roughly €69 in equivalent consulting time by the anchoring we use across the curriculum.
Yesterday
Yesterday you finished three composites. Today they line up, and the framework starts becoming yours.
Why this signal matters
Across three candidates, one signal usually pulled more diagnostic weight than the others. Identifying which one for your beat (sector, stage, geography) tells you where to spend the next 30 minutes when you only have 30 minutes.
The 5-minute exercise
- 1Lay out the three candidates: name, gut prediction, composite, delta.
- 2For each signal (1-6), note: did this signal flip a candidate's score? Up or down?
- 3Identify the signal that produced the biggest disagreement with your gut.
- 4Write one sentence: 'For my beat, the signal I should never skip is ___.'
What you’re filtering for
A named signal you've now upgraded to 'always run this first' for your beat. For dev-tools investors, it's usually dependents. For platform investors, it's usually new repo creation. For B2B SaaS, it's commit velocity.
Edge case
If the same signal flipped all three the same direction, you might just be discovering a sector-wide bias, e.g. dev-tools founders all over-index on dependents because that's their distribution channel.
Bonus
Save this list. Update it every 10 candidates. Within a quarter you'll have the personal heuristic that an 'all signals equal' framework can't give you.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow: a calibration run. We'll score one publicly-known recently-funded org and check whether the composite caught the round before it closed.
Common questions about day 12
- How long does day 12 take?
- About five minutes of hands-on work against the org you picked on day one. The reading adds another two or three. If you are short on time the exercise alone still delivers the day's point.
- Do I need any tools or paid data for compare all three, which signal carried the read??
- No. Every exercise in the challenge runs on public GitHub data and a browser. The feed that automates the same checks is available, but the curriculum itself is deliberately tool-free so the habit lands before the tooling.
- What if I miss a day?
- Every day is permanent at its own URL, so you can pick up exactly where you stopped. The sequence matters, each day builds on the previous one's artifact, but the pace is yours. Many people run the 30 days across six or seven weeks instead of four.
Curriculum: /challenge · Methodology: /methodology · Paper: ssrn.com/abstract=6606558