Open prediction markets
Live odds on startup funding events
Each market lists 2-10 named startups and a binary or multi-outcome question (e.g. “which raises Series A first by date X?”). Implied probabilities are derived from our GitHub commit-velocity dataset and update on each quarterly data refresh. Free to read, citation-encouraged, machine-readable JSON beneath every page.
Series A Race 2026
Resolves 2026-12-31Which of these 5 GitHub-flagged startups raises Series A first by Dec 31, 2026?
Top: Zapply Jobs 46%5 candidates·View market →
How these markets work
- Source of truth: Public GitHub data, commit velocity, contributor growth, signal type, pulled into our quarterly dataset.
- Resolver: Public funding databases (Crunchbase, PitchBook, SEC Form D) plus company press releases. Each market specifies its own resolver.
- No real money: We publish the question and the model output. We don’t operate an exchange and we don’t hold positions.
- Free to mirror: Manifold Markets, Polymarket, Kalshi, anyone can replicate a market under the same resolver. We’ll link mirrors when they go live.
Methodology: /markets/methodology
Five breakout startups, every Sunday, before the round gets crowded
The free Acceleration Watch: five venture-backed teams accelerating on the engineering signal, translated into plain English, 21 to 47 days before the deck circulates. No code-reading, no card.
Signed The Data Nerd · pseudonymous narrator · methodology over personality