Week 2, Apply · Day 13 of 30
Day 13: Calibration, score a known recently-funded org
Pick a Series A from last quarter. What did the composite say at month -3?
Day 13 in one paragraph: Backtesting on one known case proves to yourself that the framework wasn't just confirming pattern-matching on three orgs of your choosing. Pick a startup that announced a Series A 60-90 days ago and read what the composite would have said three months before the announce. You will spend about five minutes, end with a concrete artifact, and the whole curriculum stays free at this URL permanently.
Where this day sits in the 30
Week 2 combines the atomic signals into a composite score and runs it against real candidate orgs. Day 13 of 30 sits 43% of the way through, in week 2, apply, one of four one-week phases. This day also carries a bonus exercise for anyone with extra time. Everything in this challenge is built from public GitHub signals, the same data that powers the weekly deal-flow feed, and the day's lesson is worth roughly €89 in equivalent consulting time by the anchoring we use across the curriculum.
Yesterday
Yesterday you found the signal that carries your beat. Today: a backtest. One known round, scored at month -3.
Why this signal matters
Backtesting on one known case proves to yourself that the framework wasn't just confirming pattern-matching on three orgs of your choosing. Pick a startup that announced a Series A 60-90 days ago and read what the composite would have said three months before the announce.
The 5-minute exercise
- 1Pick a Series A or B announce from 60-90 days ago. TechCrunch, Newcomer, Pro Rata.
- 2Open the GitHub org. For each signal, set the date filter to 'last 90 days' counting backward from 90 days before today (i.e. the org's state at month -3).
- 3Score as if you were doing diligence three months pre-announce.
- 4Compare the inferred 'month -3' composite to the announced round.
What you’re filtering for
A score of 4/6 or higher at month -3 is a hit, the framework would have flagged this round before it closed. A score of 2/6 or lower is a miss, useful too, the panel data says ~30% of rounds don't surface in GitHub signals.
Edge case
Some recently-funded orgs went private with key repos right before the round. That itself is a tell, public→private repo flip is a signal we don't formalise but is worth a manual check.
Bonus
Run this calibration on five rounds and you'll have a personal hit-rate. 60-70% accuracy at month -3 is realistic for the public-data version. The MCP version layers in private-data heuristics and runs ~78%.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow closes Week 2, your first 3-startup scorecard becomes a real artifact you can show.
Common questions about day 13
- How long does day 13 take?
- About five minutes of hands-on work against the org you picked on day one. The reading adds another two or three. If you are short on time the exercise alone still delivers the day's point.
- Do I need any tools or paid data for calibration, score a known recently-funded org?
- No. Every exercise in the challenge runs on public GitHub data and a browser. The feed that automates the same checks is available, but the curriculum itself is deliberately tool-free so the habit lands before the tooling.
- What if I miss a day?
- Every day is permanent at its own URL, so you can pick up exactly where you stopped. The sequence matters, each day builds on the previous one's artifact, but the pace is yours. Many people run the 30 days across six or seven weeks instead of four.
Curriculum: /challenge · Methodology: /methodology · Paper: ssrn.com/abstract=6606558