Video · 01:30 · synthetic voice · CC BY 4.0
GitHub Commit Velocity Predicts Series A 30 Days Early, Engineering Acceleration Watch
By the time a startup hits Crunchbase, every other VC sees it the same morning. Engineering Acceleration Watch ships every Monday with the venture-backed startups whose GitHub commit velocity is accelerating sharpest, typically 21 to 47 days before the Series A announcement, based on a longitudinal panel of 219 startup-period observations (SSRN-indexed methodology, CC BY 4.0).
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Synthetic voice, Cartesia “Theo”, anonymity-safe per the project’s no-founder-face rule.
By the time it hits Crunchbase, every other VC sees it the same morning. We saw this one 30+ days earlier.
By the time a startup hits Crunchbase, every other VC sees it the same morning you do. This week's biggest engineering accelerator surfaced thirty to forty days earlier, and the data was public the whole time.
Stage Growth, region unknown. Commit velocity up 999 percent over the last fourteen days. That's the deploy frequency spike pattern, and across the panel of two hundred nineteen confirmed rounds, it has historically preceded the fundraise announcement by twenty-one to forty-seven days.
If commit-velocity acceleration is the most leading public signal in venture capital, then every other deal-flow source, pitch decks, AngelList, Crunchbase, warm intros, is a lagging indicator.
Five startups every Monday, free, at gitdealflow.com slash predicted. Methodology open at signals.gitdealflow.com slash methodology. Talk soon.
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