Signal definition
Infrastructure Buildout
Indicates a startup is moving from prototype to production. Often appears 4-8 weeks before a public launch announcement.
Unit: binary signal (fires / does not fire) · Window: 30-day window
Formula
fires when ≥3 of {Dockerfile, k8s manifest, terraform/, .github/workflows/, deployment config} are added/modified within a 30-day windowDecision rule
Strongest weight when paired with the first appearance of a billing/auth dependency in package.json (e.g. stripe, clerk, auth0), indicates production readiness.
Common pitfall
Open-source libraries publish infra (Dockerfiles, GitHub Actions, k8s charts) for distribution, not for their own use. We score down repos with library-shape signals (semver tags, npm/pypi presence).
Related signals
Defined in the SSRN-indexed methodology paper. Full definition, assumptions, and validation in §3 of the paper. Reproducibility kit at /reproducibility. Glossary entry at /glossary#infrastructure-buildout.
Five breakout startups, every Sunday, before the round gets crowded
The free Acceleration Watch: five venture-backed teams accelerating on the engineering signal, translated into plain English, 21 to 47 days before the deck circulates. No code-reading, no card.