Signal definition
Commit Velocity Change
The primary ranking signal at VC Deal Flow Signal. Sustained acceleration historically precedes fundraise announcements by 3-6 weeks. Captures rate-of-change, so it works equally well across small and large repos.
Unit: percent change between adjacent 14-day windows · Window: Two adjacent 14-day windows
Formula
(velocity[t] − velocity[t − 14d]) / velocity[t − 14d]Decision rule
Sustained acceleration is defined as positive Δ velocity for ≥3 consecutive 14-day windows.
Common pitfall
A single big number (e.g. +1,647%) usually means the prior window was anomalously low. Always inspect the absolute baseline before acting on a percentage.
Empirical findings about commit velocity change
Related signals
Defined in the SSRN-indexed methodology paper. Full definition, assumptions, and validation in §3 of the paper. Reproducibility kit at /reproducibility. Glossary entry at /glossary#commit-velocity-change.
Five breakout startups, every Sunday, before the round gets crowded
The free Acceleration Watch: five venture-backed teams accelerating on the engineering signal, translated into plain English, 21 to 47 days before the deck circulates. No code-reading, no card.