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Crunchbase tells you the day they raised. We tell you 47 days before.
01 · Problem
Every investor sees the same warm intros, the same AngelList syndicates, the same TechCrunch posts. By the time a deck reaches you, three other investors are already in the room. You compete on reputation and speed, never on information.
02 · The shift
Engineering accelerates before fundraises start. Three weeks before. Sometimes seven. New contributors join. Commit velocity doubles. Infrastructure repos appear. The signal is public, free, updating live, and nobody else is reading it as deal flow.
03 · Proof
219 startup-period observations. Five quarters. Our hypothesis: companies showing a 2× contributor spike inside a 14-day window precede their fundraise announcement by a few weeks: validated openly on /scorecard, not yet established.
SSRN-published preprint, full panel + regression code at /research. CC BY 4.0, replicate it yourself.
04 · Offer
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05 · Close
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