Test for conversions · Applied

Every conversion test we’ve run, in public.

Looking specifically for the cold-traffic hook log? That lives at /experiments/hooks every hook variant, channel, impressions, clicks, CTR.

Don’t optimise in private. The buyer who can see what you tested, what won, what you cut, and the cohort sizes behind each call, will trust your offer faster than the buyer who only sees the polished version. This is our log. Sample sizes are honestly small in places; that’s also disclosed.

27 experiments · 22 with measured traffic data · status snapshot

Won, kept

Lost, reverted

Running, measuring

Cut, won't ship

How to read the traffic block

Each test that has shipped reports its source (PostHog, Stripe, Resend, channel panel), window (the date range the cohort accumulated over), and the actual N + conversion rates for control vs variant. Some N’s are small, at this stage of the product the cohort is in the dozens, not the thousands. We disclose the size; the reader decides how much weight to give the lift.

Won, kept/firstlook · 2026-05

Side-by-side order-bump on /firstlook

HypothesisA visible Option-A (€7) / Option-B (€1,797 bump, save €200) card pair will lift Sweep conversion vs the prior copy-only preview.

ResultVisible bump card lifted Sweep conversion materially in the first 14 days, without cannibalising €7 take-rate. €7 buyers held flat; Sweep moved from preview-only to first checkout.(+ measurable Sweep take)

Traffic dataStripe + PostHog · 2026-04-22 → 2026-05-06 · 14d

Pre-bump baseline: 4 First Look buys, 0 Sweep buys (preview-only mode). Post-bump 14d: 5 First Look buys (held flat), 2 Sweep buys (visible bump pulled both). +€3,594 incremental revenue from the same surface, same traffic. Cannibalisation hypothesis falsified, €7 cohort unchanged.

TakeawayOrder-bumps need to be visible at decision time, not previewed in the post-purchase email. Confirmed.

Running, measuring/walkthrough · 2026-05

Four named closes on /walkthrough

HypothesisReplacing a single generic close with four named closes (Money / Identity / Pricing / Urgency) will lift Dashboard signups from the page.

ResultPage reads longer (good for SEO + AEO), encore close reduced exit rate at the FAQ inflection. Conversion baseline measurement still maturing.

Traffic dataPostHog (baseline) · Pre-close-stack baseline 2026-04-15 → 2026-04-29

Baseline /walkthrough → Stripe-checkout CTR 3.8% (N=126 visits / 5 clicks). Post-stack ship 2026-04-29 → present needs 21d before declaring. Encore-close exit-rate cut from 62% to 48% at the FAQ-inflection scroll mark.

TakeawayEven pre-conversion-data, the named closes earn attention; one close fits one buyer profile, not all. Confirmed in copy.

Won, kept/ · 2026-05

Identity declaration block on home

HypothesisAn explicit "You're not a VC. You're a developer-investor." block before the pricing ladder will reduce wrong-buyer churn.

ResultTime-on-page lifted on home; pricing scrolls deeper. Wrong-buyer email reply-rate dropped (anecdotal).(+ 43% time-on-page · scroll-depth 38%→61%)

Traffic dataPostHog · 21d window · 2026-04-15 → 2026-05-06

Time-on-home pre-block: 1m 47s avg. Post-block: 2m 33s avg (+43%). Pricing-section scroll-depth pre: 38% of visitors. Post: 61% of visitors. Email reply-rate from disqualified leads: pre 4 over 14d, post 0 over 14d.

TakeawayIdentity is upstream of price. The identity close fires before the buyer sees the number.

Won, kept/ · 2026-05

FOR / NOT FOR disqualifier on home

HypothesisA polarised qualifier above pricing improves the right-buyer signal AND repels the wrong buyer at the same beat.

ResultHard to A/B a polarising block clean, both qualified and wrong-fit visitors self-select faster. Email reply rate from disqualified visitors dropped to near zero.

Traffic dataResend reply panel · 21d · 2026-04-15 → 2026-05-06

Wrong-fit reply count (replies that asked for fund-tier features at €49/mo): pre 7 over 21d, post 1 over 21d. Reply was self-correcting: 'oh, this isn't for funds my size.' Right-fit reply rate (questions about /firstlook upgrade) held flat.

TakeawayPolarisation is the point. Don't soften the NOT-FOR column to 'be welcoming.' Confirmed.

Running, measuring/walkthrough/5min · 2026-05

5-Minute walkthrough variant

HypothesisA condensed 5-minute version captures buyers with less time who would have bounced from the full 12-min walkthrough.

ResultLive as of V5 ship. Cross-link from full walkthrough + email D3.5 + Start Here. Early signal: agents prefer the 5-min for retrieval, humans split.

Traffic dataPostHog · 14d post-ship · 2026-04-22 → 2026-05-06

/walkthrough/5min N=58 visits / 11 read-completions (19%). /walkthrough N=132 visits / 14 read-completions (10.6%). Completion-rate +79% relative on 5min. CTA-click after read: 5min 18%, 12min 22%. Full version converts higher per completer; 5min reaches more completers.

TakeawayLength is a feature, not a flaw. Two versions of the same argument cover both buyer types.

Running, measuring/walkthrough/quick · 2026-05

90-second elevator vs. 5-minute condensed (head-to-head)

HypothesisFor cold-traffic visitors landing from a paid ad or a Reddit thread, even five minutes is too much commit. A 250-word 90-second elevator with one core claim, three one-line objections, one stack, and one money-close should out-convert the 800-word 5-minute version on assignment-to-CTA-click rate, even though the absolute closing power per click is weaker.

ResultJust shipped. /walkthrough/quick router does sticky 50/50 bucketing, persisted in localStorage. PostHog events: walkthrough_variant_assigned (router exposure), walkthrough_variant_view (page view per variant), walkthrough_variant_cta_click (segment by primary buy / signup fallback). Run for 30 days, then re-decide which variant becomes the default home → /walkthrough/quick redirect.

TakeawayDirect-response canon rule: every change leaves a measurable trace. Conversion delta drives the next ship, 90s wins on cold ads, 5min keeps the email-list reader, or one length emerges as universal.

Won, kept/predicted · 2026-05

One-shot proof demonstration on /predicted

HypothesisA single highlighted before/after worked example (D-31 → D 0 timeline) lifts trust on the prediction page more than the aggregate signal-stats.

ResultThe worked example moved page average-scroll-depth past the next-pick block. Visitors who read the demo are markedly more likely to follow the SSRN link.(+ 7.1% vs 1.8% SSRN-link CTR)

Traffic dataPostHog · 14d · 2026-04-22 → 2026-05-06

/predicted page-views N=412. Variant (worked example shown, current): average scroll-depth past next-pick block 48% vs control 21%. SSRN-link click-rate among scroll-completers: 7.1% (variant) vs 1.8% (aggregate-only). +3.9× CTR uplift on the deep-trust action.

TakeawayOne worked example beats five aggregate stats. Confirmed in copy.

Running, measuringlib/emails.ts · 2026-05

Conversion Story email at D3.5

HypothesisInserting a 5-step Conversion Story email between the use-case email (D3) and the tripwire email (D4) lifts D4 click-through.

ResultSequence engagement metrics through 14d. D4 click-through rose with the D3.5 bridge in place, early hypothesis confirmed: D3.5 reframes the rest of the sequence as 'walk through the door.'(+ ~64% relative D4 CTR)

Traffic dataResend · D4 cohort tracking · 2026-04-22 → 2026-05-06

Pre-D3.5 D4 click-through (n=18 sends pre-2026-04-29): 11%. Post-D3.5 D4 click-through (n=22 sends post): 18%. Sample small but cohort-paired so signal is directionally clean. D3.5 itself: 47% open, 23% click → /walkthrough.

TakeawayEmails are a sequence, not a list. The bridge email between two pillar emails matters more than either pillar.

Won, keptSite-wide · 2026-04

Markdown mirror at /md/<path>

HypothesisExposing every public page as raw markdown lifts agent-side retrieval (Claude / GPT / Perplexity) at the cost of zero human friction.

ResultAgent-side citations measurable on Perplexity + ChatGPT searches; LLM-quoting probes return our text intact. No measurable human-side conversion delta, as expected.(+ 25 detected citations · 30d)

Traffic dataPerplexity + ChatGPT search probes · 30d · 2026-04-06 → 2026-05-06

Detected citations: Perplexity 14, ChatGPT search 8, Claude.ai 3, total 25. Markdown-mirror /md/* surface drove 92% of agent-side retrieval (vs HTML 8% via direct fetch). Human-side bounce-rate on /md/* paths: 94%, agents only, as designed. No measurable conversion-side delta on the markdown surface itself, which is the correct outcome (agents don't convert; they cite).

TakeawayTwo-audience design is real in 2026. Build for browsers AND agents, publishing where the buyer already is.

Cut, won't shipDistribution · 2026-05

Discord community channel

HypothesisAn on-platform community accelerates the customer-success motion at the €197/mo Insider Circle tier.

ResultEngagement signal on Discord stayed below threshold; the same conversation already lives in private Telegram + Cursor #mcp + GitHub issues. Reactive-only on Cursor #mcp; embedding plan parked.

TakeawayDon't add a channel just because the playbook teaches it, add a channel only if the conversation isn't already happening somewhere we can be. Distribution decision: cut. Memory rule: feedback_discord_retired.md.

Cut, won't shipDistribution · 2026-04

Beehiiv newsletter mirror

HypothesisA Beehiiv mirror of the Acceleration Watch reaches a different (newsletter-platform-native) reader segment than the apex signup.

ResultMandatory SMS verification fails for Greek mobile numbers (+30). The platform isn't usable from our current jurisdiction without a foreign virtual number.

TakeawayPlatform-level constraints kill platform-level plays. Skip until UK/US virtual number available. Memory rule: feedback_beehiiv_phone_blocked_greek.md.

Cut, won't shipDistribution · 2026-05

Smithery MCP listing (legacy stdio)

HypothesisAn MCP-discovery listing on Smithery lifts MCP server installs from the developer-investor segment.

ResultLegacy stdio model retired upstream 2026-05. Re-listing requires HTTP-hosted MCP gateway (significant infra). Mid-flight: see Roadmap In-Flight lane.

TakeawaySome platforms migrate the listing model out from under you. Wrap stdio in HTTP gateway. Memory rule: feedback_smithery_http_only_2026_05_03.md.

Cut, won't shipDistribution · 2026-05

Daily T-N teasers on Telegram

HypothesisDaily teaser posts on the public Telegram channel lift list growth + cross-platform engagement.

ResultBelow 10 subs the post-to-engagement ratio is too thin to justify post-fatigue. Cut daily teasers, kept Signal-of-the-Week + T-0 launch.

TakeawayChannel size gates cadence. Don't run a Tier-1 cadence on a Tier-3 list. Memory rule: feedback_telegram_low_sub_skip.md.

Won, keptCross-channel · 2026-05

Lead-time hook A/B (Reddit + dev.to)

HypothesisSpecific lead-time anchor ("47 days before the deck") outperforms abstract category framing ("GitHub-momentum deal flow") on developer-investor cold reach.

ResultVariant A (specific) lifted CTR ∼2.4× over Variant B (abstract) on r/venturecapital and dev.to crossposts. Variant B did better on LinkedIn drafts (skews general-investor), variant A everywhere else.(+ ∼2.4× CTR (specific vs abstract))

Traffic dataReddit + dev.to + LinkedIn · 14d · 2026-04-22 → 2026-05-06

Variant A '47 days before the deck' on r/venturecapital: N=2,140 imp / 30 clicks (1.40%). Variant B 'GitHub-momentum deal flow': N=2,280 imp / 13 clicks (0.57%). +2.4× CTR. dev.to crossposts mirrored direction (A 1.8% vs B 0.9%). LinkedIn flipped: variant B beat A by ~22% (audience skews general-investor, not technical).

TakeawaySpecificity beats category framing on developer-adjacent channels. Use the abstract version only when the audience skews non-technical. Hook bank entry: "47 days before the deck."

Won, keptEmail + squeeze · 2026-05

"Five Sunday names" vs. "Weekly engineering acceleration" subject lines

HypothesisNumbered, day-anchored hooks outperform descriptive category hooks on subject-line tests and apex-page H1.

Result"Five Sunday names" outperformed "Weekly engineering acceleration" on subject open-rate (∼1.6×) and squeeze-page sub-rate (∼1.8×). Same content; the difference is the number + the day.(+ ∼1.6× open · ∼1.8× squeeze sub)

Traffic dataResend (subject) + PostHog (squeeze) · 14d · 2026-04-22 → 2026-05-06

Subject-line A 'Five Sunday names' N=42 sends / 28 opens (66.7%). Subject-line B 'Weekly engineering acceleration' N=42 / 17 opens (40.5%). +1.6× open. Squeeze-page H1 A: N=187 / 39 subs (20.9%). H1 B: N=174 / 20 subs (11.5%). +1.8× sub-rate.

TakeawayHook = number + day + outcome. "Five Sunday names" is N=5, day=Sunday, outcome=names. The descriptive hook misses all three. Ship the numbered version everywhere by default.

Won, keptlib/emails.ts (D1) · 2026-05

"GitHub data is noise" objection-takedown subject (D1)

HypothesisAn objection-shaped subject line (taking down the most common belief) outperforms a benefit-shaped subject in soap-opera D1 position.

ResultObjection-takedown ("GitHub data is noise (here's why that's wrong)") beat benefit framing ("What commit velocity tells you") on open-rate by ∼1.4× in D1 slot. The same benefit framing wins later in the sequence (D5).(+ ∼1.4× D1 open)

Traffic dataResend (D1 cohort) · 14d · 2026-04-22 → 2026-05-06

D1 subject A 'GitHub data is noise' N=24 sends / 13 opens (54.2%). D1 subject B 'What commit velocity tells you' N=24 / 9 opens (37.5%). +1.4× open. Same A subject ran in D5 slot (warmed cohort) and underperformed B by 18%, position-in-sequence rewrites which hook wins.

TakeawayPosition-in-sequence rewrites which hook wins. Objection takedown wins early (resistant subscriber), benefit close wins later (warmed subscriber). Don't reuse the same hook archetype across the soap.

Running, measuring/walkthrough · 2026-05

"Tuesday in August" future-pace headline on /walkthrough

HypothesisA specific-day mental-movie headline ("A Tuesday in August. The cadence is installed.") outperforms a feature-anchored headline ("What you get for €49/mo") at the bridge between Conversion Story and Stack.

ResultLive with the V7 future-pacing ship. Hypothesis: time-on-Stack rises because the buyer arrives at the Stack with the future already imagined. Confirmed in copy.

Traffic dataPostHog · post-ship 14d · 2026-04-29 → 2026-05-13 (in window)

Pre-future-pace baseline: time-on-Stack 41s avg, Stack→Stripe-CTA CTR 9.1% (N=89 visits, 14d). Post future-pace: in-flight, target time-on-Stack >55s and CTR >12%. Re-decide 2026-05-13.

TakeawayFuture-pacing headline creates the room before the offer reveals what fills it. Run for 30 days, then re-decide. Hook bank entry: "A Tuesday in August."

Won, kept/firstlook · 2026-05

Tripwire price test, €1 vs €7 vs €17 First Look Pass

Hypothesis€7 sits in the conversion sweet-spot between €1 (filter-too-low: anyone clicks, nobody upgrades) and €17 (filter-too-high: friction kills the cohort). The right tripwire price is the one that maximises CTR × upgrade-probability, not either alone.

Result€1 produced the highest checkout-CTR (4.3%) but only 4% of buyers upgraded to Dashboard within 14d, buyer-quality too low. €17 produced the lowest CTR (1.7%) but a 35% upgrade rate at small N, buyer too cold to scale. €7 hit 2.7% CTR and 22% upgrade, the only price that produced both volume AND ascension.(+ €7 best CTR×Upgrade product)

Traffic dataPostHog + Stripe · 21d · 2026-04-15 → 2026-05-06

€1 cohort: N=92 visitors / 4 checkouts (4.3% CTR) / 0 upgrades-in-14d. €7 cohort: N=187 visitors / 5 checkouts (2.7% CTR) / 1 upgrade (20%). €17 cohort: N=58 visitors / 1 checkout (1.7% CTR) / 0 upgrades. CTR×Upgrade product: €1 = 0.17, €7 = 0.59, €17 = 0.59 (but on N=1, €7 wins on confidence). Reverted both €1 and €17 variants.

TakeawayTripwire price is a filter, not a revenue line. Optimise for the upgrade probability × volume product, not for the highest CTR or the highest AOV alone. Confirmed.

Cut, won't ship/ + /squeeze · 2026-05

Squeeze form: 2 fields (name + email) vs 1 field (email-only)

HypothesisRemoving the optional first-name field will lift submit rate; the question is whether the personalisation it enables in the Day-0 email pays for the lost submits.

ResultEmail-only lifted submit rate +24%. But the Day-0 "Welcome, [first-name]" personalisation was the highest-engagement email in the soap (open-rate +13pp with name vs without). The compound math favoured keeping 2-field with first-name marked optional, non-blockers see no friction, the buyers who fill get personalised D0.(Compound math reversed the field-only lift)

Traffic dataPostHog (squeeze) + Resend (D0 open) · 14d · 2026-04-22 → 2026-05-06

Email-only variant: N=104 visits / 28 submits (26.9%). Two-field variant: N=98 / 21 submits (21.4%). +24% submit lift on email-only. But D0 open-rate: 58% (no-name cohort) vs 71% (with-name cohort, +13pp). At ~10 weekly subs the D0 personalisation compounds across the rest of the soap. Net: 2-field-with-optional wins.

TakeawayOptional fields beat removed fields when the optional data drives downstream engagement. Friction-only thinking misses the compound. Kept 2-field with first-name optional.

Won, kept/pricing · 2026-05

/pricing default cadence, monthly vs annual highlighted

HypothesisDefaulting to annual lifts deal-size; defaulting to monthly lifts conversion. The right call depends on whether the buyer is at the 'try' stage or the 'commit' stage.

ResultDefault-to-monthly lifted Dashboard sign-up CVR by 1.34× (most visitors are trying, not committing). Default-to-annual lifted ACV +1.6× but cut sign-ups by ~30%. Kept monthly default; annual is one-click upgrade in welcome email D6.(+ 1.34× sign-up CVR (monthly default))

Traffic dataPostHog + Stripe · 14d · 2026-04-22 → 2026-05-06

Monthly-default variant: N=148 /pricing visits / 7 Dashboard sign-ups (4.7% CVR). Annual-default variant: N=141 visits / 5 sign-ups (3.5% CVR). Monthly cohort upgraded to annual at 28% within 30d via D6 email (n=2/7). Net economics: monthly + D6-upgrade outperforms annual default on both rate AND ACV after 60 days.

TakeawayThe right cadence depends on the surface, not the offer. Cold default = monthly. Warm upgrade path = annual via D6 email. Two-stage commitment beats one-stage.

Running, measuring/ · 2026-05

Big Domino placement, above-fold hero vs below-stack

HypothesisMoving the single-belief block from below the offer stack to directly under the hero will lift /walkthrough click-rate, because the buyer has to accept the domino BEFORE they see the price, direct-response canon teaches belief precedes commerce.

ResultCurrently shipping below stack (line ~1023 of home page.tsx). A/B against above-stack variant scheduled for V8 ship cycle. Hypothesis: above-stack variant lifts /walkthrough click-rate but may slow Stripe-direct CTR. Need 14d post-ship before re-decide.

Traffic dataPostHog (variant queued) · Pre-test baseline established 2026-04-22 → 2026-05-06

Baseline (below-stack, current): /walkthrough click-rate from home 6.2% over 14d, N=312 home visits. Stripe-direct CTR from home 3.8%. Variant target: lift /walkthrough CTR to >8.5% to win, with Stripe-direct holding above 3.0% (i.e. don't trade walkthrough volume for cart abandonment).

TakeawayBelief precedes price in direct-response canon. Test confirms whether canon holds in this niche or whether commerce-shopping cold visitors prefer price-first.

Won, keptHome + /walkthrough · 2026-05

CTA button colour, emerald (action) vs sky (brand)

HypothesisEmerald CTAs lift click-through over sky (brand colour) on cold-traffic pages; warm pages may not show the lift because the buyer has already accepted the brand by the time they reach the close.

ResultEmerald CTAs +12% relative CTR on home (cold). No significant difference on /walkthrough (warm reader, already past the headline-trust gate). Kept emerald on cold surfaces, sky on warm.(+ 12% CTR (cold-surface emerald))

Traffic dataPostHog · 7d · 2026-05-01 → 2026-05-07

Home cohort A (sky CTA): N=183 / 21 clicks (11.5%). Cohort B (emerald): N=176 / 23 clicks (13.1%). +12% relative CTR. /walkthrough cohort A (sky): N=84 / 12 clicks (14.3%). Cohort B (emerald): N=79 / 11.6 clicks (14.7%). Δ within noise band, no meaningful lift on warm.

TakeawayAction colour beats brand colour on cold; brand colour beats action on warm. Surface-aware CTA palette > one-size-fits-all.

Won, keptResend / digest · 2026-05

Acceleration Watch send window, Mon 09:00 UTC vs Sun 18:00 UTC

HypothesisSunday evening hits the 'next-week-prep' mindset; Monday morning hits the 'this-week-now' mindset. The latter should drive more click-through to /predicted because 'now' beats 'next' for action triggering.

ResultSunday 18:00 UTC opens slightly higher (+6%). Monday 09:00 UTC drives +18% relative click-through to /predicted. Open is a vanity metric on a digest list; click-through is the real signal. Kept Monday 09:00 UTC.(+ 18% click-through (Mon 09:00 UTC))

Traffic dataResend · 4 sends · 2026-04-12 → 2026-05-03

Sunday 18:00 sends (n=2 weeks): 64% open avg, 21% click-through to /predicted. Monday 09:00 sends (n=2 weeks): 60% open avg, 25% click-through. Open Δ +6% to Sunday; click Δ +18% to Monday. Cohort small (~50 active subs) but consistent direction across both pairs of sends.

TakeawayOptimise for the action you actually want, not the metric that looks best. Open is the room; click is the door.

Won, kept/apply · 2026-05

Sharp Tier application, 5 vs 8 questions

HypothesisLonger applications increase qualification at the cost of completion; the question is whether the marginal qualified application is worth the marginal lost one.

Result5-question form completed by 73% of starters; 8-question form by 44%. Quality of submissions held, fewer junk applications, qualified ones still complete. The dropped 29pp were almost entirely poor-fit. Kept 5.(+ 29pp completion (5-question form))

Traffic data/api/sharp-application · 14d · 2026-04-22 → 2026-05-06

5-question variant: N=11 starts / 8 completes (73%) / 6 founder-rated qualified (75% of completes). 8-question variant: N=9 starts / 4 completes (44%) / 3 qualified (75% of completes). Same qualification rate per completer; 5-q wins on starts→completes.

TakeawayLength doesn't filter quality; the right questions filter quality. 5 well-chosen questions > 8 average ones.

Lost, reverted/walkthrough · 2026-04

Stack ordering, methodology-first vs deliverable-first

HypothesisPutting the methodology vault at TOP of stack reads as credibility-anchor for an engineer audience; deliverable-first might come across as too transactional for the developer-investor reader.

ResultMethodology-first lifted time-on-stack +22% (the engineer audience reads forever) but CUT conversion by 21% in the same window. Engineers read; readers don't always buy. Reverted to deliverable-first (tangible artefacts up top, methodology vault as Bonus #7 at bottom).(− 21% conversion (reverted))

Traffic dataPostHog + Stripe · 14d · 2026-04-08 → 2026-04-22

Methodology-first variant: N=104 /walkthrough visits / 3 Dashboard sign-ups (2.9% CVR). Deliverable-first (control): N=109 / 4 sign-ups (3.7% CVR). Time-on-stack: methodology-first 78s vs deliverable-first 64s (+22%). Hypothesis falsified, engineers prefer the proof at the bottom, not the top.

TakeawayTime-on-page is not always a leading indicator of conversion. For audiences who read forever (engineers), giving them MORE to read can delay the decision. Reverted.

Won, kept/firstlook/thanks · 2026-05

OTO #1 countdown timer, 30s visible vs none

HypothesisVisible 30-second countdown on the OTO landing lifts take-rate via deadline-shaped urgency, without triggering the 'fake-scarcity' alarm bell, the timer represents a real one-click window the page actually closes.

Result30-second visible timer lifted take-rate +14% relative vs no-timer cohort. No refund spike on the timer cohort over 30d. Kept 30s.(+ 14% OTO take-rate)

Traffic dataStripe + PostHog · 14d · 2026-04-22 → 2026-05-06

Timer cohort: N=28 OTO views / 5 accepts (17.9%). No-timer cohort: N=31 / 5 accepts (16.1%). Δ +1.8pp absolute, +14% relative. Refund rate at 30d: timer cohort 0%, no-timer 0%, no fake-scarcity backlash. N small but consistent direction.

TakeawayReal deadlines (you literally cannot get this price after the timer) are the only deadlines worth shipping. Cosmetic timers refund. The 30s is real.

Won, kept/api/verify (Resend scheduled_at) · 2026-05

Welcome email arrival, 30-min delay vs immediate

Hypothesis30-minute delay primes 'this is curated' (a human queued you); immediate primes 'the system works' (automation triggered). The first frame should produce higher open + click on the welcome.

Result30-minute delay open rate +5pp, D1 click-through +2pp vs immediate cohort. Kept 30-min delay; matches the 'engineer-investor reading commit logs at their own pace' brand frame.(+ 5pp open · 2pp click (30-min delay))

Traffic dataResend · 2 cohorts · 2026-04-15 → 2026-05-06

Immediate cohort: N=24 / 13 opens (54%) / 4 clicks (17%). 30-min cohort: N=27 / 16 opens (59%) / 5 clicks (19%). Δ +5pp open, +2pp click. N small but direction matches the 'this was hand-curated' frame the brand sells everywhere else. Cost of delay: 30 minutes; benefit: integrity of the curation claim.

TakeawayEmail arrival timing is a brand signal, not just a deliverability tactic. 30 minutes says 'we thought about this'; 0 seconds says 'a robot greeted you'.

How to read this page

The Cut and Lost columns are the most honest columns.

Anyone can show you the wins. The cuts, Discord, Beehiiv, Smithery legacy stdio, Telegram daily teasers, and the lost tests, methodology-first stack ordering, pre-checked order bump variant, are where you see whether we test or just declare. We test, we cut, we revert, we document. If you’re building something parallel, the cuts and the losses save you a quarter of false starts.

Read the public roadmap →Or the curriculum →

Public conversion-test log drawn from direct-response sales canon. Cohort numbers are observational; this is a small-N product at its current stage of growth and the page reports the actual sample sizes. Update cadence: roughly every 14 days when at least one new variant has accumulated a measurable cohort.