Space Tech: wait or partner.
Space tech is the only sector where the cheque needs nine zeros, wait quadrant for everyone else.
Scope: Launch, satellite hardware, ground stations, earth observation, in-orbit servicing, defence-adjacent space, satellite data analytics.
TL;DR, Space Tech
Space tech is the only sector where the cheque needs nine zeros, wait quadrant for everyone else.
Quadrant: Wait or partner , High cost-to-build, low deal-velocity. Capital-trap territory, stand down, partner with an incumbent, or stage cheques against milestones instead of announcements.. Data refreshed weekly.
Build-vs-invest scoring measures engineering cost-to-velocity ratio across GitHub organizations: a sector where high commit velocity co-occurs with low cost-per-commit is a build signal (founder-addressable); high velocity with high cost is a fund signal (capital-intensive, institutional). All scores are derived from the SSRN panel dataset and update with each weekly data refresh.
Cost-to-build
96/100
Hardware, launch slots, regulatory clearance, and team-quality requirements compound to the highest cost-to-build on the site.
Deal-velocity
36/100
Engineering acceleration in space-tech is increasingly software-led (satellite-data analytics) which shortens the signal window for that sub-niche; the launch/hardware tail still runs in multi-year cycles.
Live signal: 23 space tech startups currently tracked for Q3 2026. See the roster →
Where Space Tech lands
Build
Build it yourself
Fund
Write the cheque
Avoid
Reroute the energy
Wait
Wait or partner
High cost-to-build, low deal-velocity. Capital-trap territory, stand down, partner with an incumbent, or stage cheques against milestones instead of announcements.
The honest version
What the score is really saying.
Cost-to-build is the highest on the site. Velocity has improved as satellite-data plays (effectively SaaS) absorbed some space-tech burn, but the dominant capital cycle still measures in years. This is dedicated-thesis territory for the smallest set of investors; founders without prior space-industry exposure should look elsewhere.
If you are building
The indie playbook.
Fits when: You are shipping satellite-data analytics or ground-software, not hardware.
- 1Skip hardware. Pick a satellite-data vertical (maritime, insurance, agriculture, defence) and ship analytics on top.
- 2Buy data from constellation operators; do not build your own constellation.
- 3Sell to specific verticals; horizontal earth-observation plays underperform.
If you are funding
The investor playbook.
Fits when: You have a dedicated space-tech thesis, nine-figure capacity, and patience for decade-long cycles.
- 1Underwrite hardware separately from satellite-data, they are different asset classes.
- 2Treat satellite-data analytics as vertical SaaS; treat launch and hardware as deep-tech.
- 3Time cheques to regulatory milestones rather than engineering signals.
Frequently asked questions.
Is satellite-data analytics actually buildable?▾
Yes, treat it as vertical SaaS with a space tag. The build-vs-invest math for that sub-niche resembles enterprise SaaS rather than space-tech.
Why is deal-velocity not the lowest on the site?▾
Because satellite-data analytics has compressed velocity for one sub-niche. If you filter to launch / hardware only, velocity is materially lower than the score shown.
Same quadrant, different sectors.
Healthcare
Healthcare is the patient capital quadrant, and most founders forget the patient.
Supply Chain
Supply chain is the slowest-moving sector we track, bet on capital, not on velocity.
Robotics
Robotics is the most capital-intensive sector, wait quadrant for almost everyone.
PropTech
PropTech is the slowest fund-quadrant adjacent we track, avoid the indie path.
AgTech
AgTech is hardware-heavy, slow, and only fundable inside a dedicated thesis.
See the full matrix.
Every sector we track lives somewhere on the 2×2, the index page groups all 20 verdicts in one place.
When the verdict isn’t enough
You read the quadrant. Now you want the names.
The free Monday email tells you which way the wind is blowing. If space techis the call you’re weighing this quarter, two faster moves: pull the live teardown on this one sector, or watch every sector week over week so you see the team pulling ahead before it shows up in someone’s deck.
Pressure-test one sector
€7
One sector, one teardown, one sitting. The same read your analyst would spend an afternoon on, who’s shipping like they’re about to raise, and who just looks busy. Cheaper than the coffee you’d buy to ask around.
Test one sector, €7 →Watch it move every week
€49/mo
The standing dashboard across every sector we track, so the team that quietly doubled overnight lands in front of you, not in front of the partner who beat you to the term sheet. The deck lags the work by 21 to 47 days; this is where you spend that head start.
Get the dashboard, €49/mo →