How to Read GitHub Signals for Startup Investing

GitHub commit velocity - measured as the rate of change in 14-day commit counts - is the earliest publicly available signal of startup momentum. When a startup's engineering acceleration doubles in a two-week window, it typically precedes a fundraise announcement by three to six weeks. This guide covers the four signal types (hiring burst, infrastructure buildout, deploy spike, framework migration), what to ignore, and a practical workflow for turning GitHub data into actionable deal flow.

Key stats

6-12 weeks: Signal lead time (Before fundraise announcements)

20: Sectors tracked (Updated weekly)

4: Signal types (Hiring burst, buildout, spike, migration)

References

[1] GitHub REST API - Commit Activity: GitHub Docs

[2] GitHub REST API - Contributors: GitHub Docs

[3] Alternative Data in Private Markets: Bain & Company