I Tracked 350+ Startup GitHub Orgs for Six Months. Here's What Predicts a Series A.

Six months of weekly snapshots across 350+ startup GitHub orgs reveal that a coordinated jump in commit velocity, contributor count, and new-repo creation precedes Series A announcements roughly 70% of the time, with a 3 to 6 week lead. The signal is strongest for devtools, infra, fintech, and cybersecurity startups; it is noisy for AI-pure companies because they commit constantly regardless of stage. The full live watchlist of 10 startups predicted to raise in Q3 2026 is published at /predicted, with a free /predict tool to score any GitHub org in real time.

Key stats

350+: Startup orgs tracked (Across 15 sectors, weekly)

3-6 weeks: Signal lead time (Before fundraise announcements)

70%: Series A hit rate (Backtest, Q3-Q4 2025)

References

[1] GitHub REST API - Commit Activity: GitHub Docs

[2] Alternative Data in Private Markets: Bain & Company

[3] VC Deal Flow Signal Methodology: GitDealFlow